Bravery known as Brown

Courageous acts are no longer commended in football. In the modern game players are expected to put their head over the footy or go back with the flight. These brave performances are merely taken for granted. The risk and potential damage players are putting themselves into is outrageous. The extent of Jonathan Brown’s horrific facial injuries sustained earlier this year were described as “car crash” like. Instead of curbing his attitude towards the game, Brown came back bolder than ever, determined to lift his Brisbane Lions out of the dumps. Yesterday in typical Brown fashion, he flew back with the flight of the ball, diving into a pack of players. Unfortunately he collided with Mitch Clark’s forearm and it appears similar injuries to those earlier in the year have been sustained. To possess the courage to do this time and time again is remarkable, but to continue to throw your body at the contest after the injuries he suffered only a few months ago is not brave, but ridiculously stupid.

Jonathan Brown is a star of the game, and should go down as the bravest player to ever play. A massive statement, but thoroughly deserved for the Lions skipper. Look up courage in the dictionary, alongside it you will find

1.      The ability to do something that frightens one - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVYZQtMGv1o

2.      Strength in the face of pain or grief - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVYZQtMGv1o

Familiar faces lurking in race for finals

With just two months left until the finals commence, the race for a top eight berth is gaining momentum. Two familiar faces are gaining ground on the pack, making a late push for September showdowns. St. Kilda and the Bulldogs have been Preliminary finalists in the past three seasons, but this year they have struggled. A string of victories has both clubs primed for a good old fashioned sprint to the finish.

The Bulldogs currently sit ninth, just half a game out of the eight. Fresh from their best win of the year, the Dogs have stringed four consecutive victories together. The turnaround in form has come on the back of improvement in two key statistical areas. In modern football inside 50 tackles are gold. The Collingwood blueprint of relentless forward pressure has become essential for most teams. It comes as no surprise that the Bulldogs lacked in this area over the first eleven games of 2011. Discounting their two big wins over battling Queensland teams Brisbane and Gold Coast, the Dogs have averaged just 5.77 tackles inside 50 per game, ranked 16^th in the competition. Over the last month they have been able to turn this around. Since round 12 the Dogs have averaged 8.75 tackles inside 50, ranking them 7^th overall. The other statistical improvement comes in the form of uncontested possessions. Again disregarding results against the Lions and Suns, across the first 11 rounds the Bulldogs were ranked 14^th for uncontested possessions per game with 212.33. In the last month they have averaged 229.5 per game, ranking 9^th overall. This improvement indicates the Dogs are working harder for each other, creating space for teammates to run into. With the leg speed they possess, too many uncontested possessions means trouble, especially in the hands of smooth movers Ryan Griffin, Robert Murphy and Shaun Higgins. Arguably the biggest factor to the Bulldogs resurgence has been the form of their Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney. Cooney has battled a knee injury for most of the year but looks to have finally overcome it and recaptured his stunning Brownlow winning form of 2008. Cooney’s knee has severely hampered his performances this year, averaging just 73.15 champion data points per match. However, over the last three weeks Cooney has burst back into form averaging 112.33. If results go as expected this week, (Swans defeat Fremantle and Dogs defeat North Melbourne) the Bulldogs will be back inside the eight for the first time since round three. Despite a tough draw including just one game against a team outside the eight, the Bulldogs should be able to consolidate a finals position. With the form they showed on the weekend, they are certainly capable of mixing it with the best. The other team to fall from grace has been St. Kilda.

Three Grand Finals in two years will take its toll on players both physically and mentally. “Saints football” had scaled to the summit of Everest but never been able to conquer the peak.  Despite this most predicted the Saints would still finish in the eight and be a threat come September, this has been far from the case in season 2011. The Saints, cruelled by injury to their spiritual leader Lenny Hayes, have not been inside the top eight all year. They remain in touching distance, they currently sit 11^th, but are yet to recapture their form of 2009-10. Following consecutive wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide perhaps the Saints have finally turned the corner. Whilst neither of these teams has set the world on fire to date, four points is four points and the Saints will take anything they can get. Like the Bulldogs, the Saints form turnaround can be attributed to one man, Nick Riewoldt. Riewoldt has struggled in front of goal this year, converting a mere 35.56 per cent of shots. In some instances his set shot kicking has been appalling, some shots failing to make the distance from just 30-40 metres. It all seemed to click for St. Nick midway through the clash with North Melbourne. From then on he was back, striking the ball beautifully to finish with three goals to his name. On the weekend Riewoldt returned four goals. His seven goal tally over the past two weeks exceeds his total for the preceding five weeks. The real acid test comes this week when they take on the resurgent Eagles. If they can manage to steal the points, they are well and truly back. If not, the task remains hard but not impossible.    

With the top five close to settled amongst Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast, three places remain in the finals calculations. Hopefully the Saints and Bulldogs can grab two of these spots. You know on their day they can match it with the best, proven in last year’s drawn Grand Final. The prospect of facing the Saints or Dogs in a finals clash would be fraught with danger, but as a neutral spectator the potential clashes are mouth-watering.   

Back to the drawing board for Bombers, Hird

After just four rounds Essendon was touted as a top four team and genuine premiership contender. Revitalized under James Hird, the Bombers were playing terrific, tough football. It seemed Hird had instilled the bravery and toughness he was known for into his players. The Bombers attack on the football was ferocious, their defensive pressure when they did not have it, superb. Captain Jobe Watson had taken his game to another level and the ruck combination of David Hille and Paddy Ryder was causing headaches for opposition coaches. Many were quick to jump on the Bombers bandwagon and labelled them top four material. How quickly the tide can turn.

That was then, this is now. Barely two months later and the Bombers are hanging onto eighth spot by a thread. In recent times the Bombers have been dismal. Over the last five weeks Essendon have recorded just one win, an unconvincing performance over the depleted Brisbane Lions. However, the signs that night were ominous, the Bombers were simply running out of juice. Since then the Bombers have lost four straight against Richmond, Melbourne, Fremantle and North Melbourne. All very winnable games against teams ranked lower than them on the ladder. The key statistical indicators tell a tale of a side running out of legs. In the last five weeks the Bombers average six less tackles per game, 27 less disposals per game, four per cent lower disposal efficiency and five more turnovers a game. Essendon’s decrease in disposals combined with declining disposal efficiency is a recipe for disaster.

The most damning statistical deterioration comes in the form of ‘one percenters’. 1%ers are a key indication of how hard the team works for one another. It consists of acts such as spoils, smothers and shepherds. In the last five weeks the Bombers average 93.40 1%ers per game, ranked 14^th in the league. Similarly, over the first seven rounds Essendon were ranked fifth in the league which indicates the Bombers have lost that desire and desperation they had at the start of the season. It is those extra efforts that can be the difference between winning and losing, and bearing in mind the ladder congestion between positions 7-12 it can ultimately be the difference between playing finals or preparing for the following year. Hird needs to replenish that desire and hunger in order for the Bombers to turnaround their form.

Essendon’s ruthless pre-season was well documented in the media. James Hird worked his Bombers overtime and demanded improvement, rightfully so. Perhaps Hirdy overworked his Bombers, because it appears they have run out of steam. From here they will struggle to make the eight. Poor form accompanied by a brutal fixture suggests Essendon face an uphill challenge if they want to make a September appearance. The Bombers face Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond before travelling to Adelaide to take on the Crows. Waiting for them when they return are the inform Blues and the colossal Collingwood.

In comparison to the Matthew Knights reign just 12 months ago, the James Hird Bombers are only half-a-game superior. It appears Hird’s honeymoon is well and truly over. Not for the first time in his life, he will have to ignite his players and inspire the Bombers.

Beware the Blues

Carlton currently sits third on the ladder behind premiers Collingwood and the undefeated Geelong. Arguably the most improved team in the competition, Carlton have declared themselves a genuine premiership contender. In previous years Carlton merely made up the numbers in the finals, finishing seventh in 2009 and eighth in 2010. On both these occasions the Blues were eliminated immediately by the Lions and Swans. In the offseason earlier this year it was well documented that the Blues had to go deeper into September. It is win a final or bust for Blues’ coach Brett Ratten. Behind an improved work ethic, ferocious tackling and breakout years from the likes of Marc Murphy, Andrew Walker and Michael Jamison, the Blues look set to finally break their finals hoodoo.

For years the Blues have excited their fans with flair and potential, but failed to deliver when it mattered most. Carlton was recognised as an offensive orientated team, they had no problems penetrating the scoreboard. However they struggled at the defensive end of the field, this held them back from being a great team and a premiership contender. This season the Blues have amended the offensive tag they have been labelled. Defensively the Blues are among the best in the league, after eleven rounds they are currently ranked third for points against behind Collingwood and Geelong. The defensive improvement is clearly evident in comparison to last year, when they conceded 1983 points at an average of 90.14 per game, ranked ninth in the competition. This year the Blues are a much improved defensive unit, conceding a mere 808 points after eleven games at an average of 73.45 points per game. An improvement of three goals per match suggests the Blues have finally announced themselves as a premiership threat.

In certain circumstances statistics can be misleading, as British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once said there are “lies, damn lies and statistics.” However the Blues’ opponents have been of the highest quality, including the top three offensive teams in the competition: Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon.

Carlton’s draw ensures they are quite certain to finish in the top four. The Blues only leave Victoria once over the remaining twelve rounds. A top four finish would guarantee the Blues a home final; win, lose or draw week one of the postseason, and thus give them an ideal opportunity to finally break their finals hoodoo.

The favourable draw, accompanied by their healthy list gives Carlton fans reason to be excited. The Blues have arrived in season 2011, and are certainly contenders in what is shaping up as a three horse race.

Balance is restored

FOOTBALL has a bizarre way of leveling itself out over the course of a game, a week, season or in this case, a year. Highlighted perfectly at the Gabba on Saturday night when the resilient Brisbane Lions notched their first win of the year over North Melbourne.

North supporters will still be seething following a throw from Lions veteran Simon Black that was not recognised by the umpires late in the fourth quarter. The incident led to a Todd Banfield goal that put the Lions in front by eight points - a margin that would prove difficult to overcome considering the torrential rain and horrid conditions.

The decision, or lack of, shut the door on any chance North Melbourne had of winning. Although it was clearly a throw from the Brownlow medalist, it seemed only just that the penalty was not paid, and the wrongs of last season were seen to be corrected. Past wrongs are righted and the balance of the football world is restored yet again.

In the corresponding fixture last year, when the same teams met at Etihad Stadium in round 11, Black was again in the middle of another controversial decision. Following a Levi Greenwood goal that put the Roos up by a point, Black gathered the ball from the centre clearance before scooping and handballing the football forward in one diving motion. The umpire, who was blindsided by the congestion of players surrounding Black, incorrectly called a throw, effectively shutting the door on any chance the Lions had of winning the game.

It's remarkable that an incorrect decision involving the same teams and the same player can be corrected a year later. Karma, anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEwLq_MJFkY - Round 11, 2010 - North Melbourne V Brisbane Lions

A Challenger Rises

The challenge has been issued; Collingwood has officially found a worthy adversary in season 2011. On Friday night the Cats beat the Magpies by just three points, handing the pies their first loss since round 22 last year, when the Hawks upset them at the MCG.  

This loss could be a blessing in disguise for the Pies as they appeared slow and sluggish early in the game. Now they know they can no longer waltz through the season in cruise control, dismantling teams at will. They have received a wakeup call and in the process found a worthy adversary in Chris Scott’s Cats.

The Pies were beaten in the clearances, and had no answer to the Cats stunning centre breaks. The Cats, however, struggled to put their dominance into scoreboard pressure, registering eight behinds before scoring a goal, ultimately leaving the door ajar for a Collingwood revival.

To the Pies’ credit they fought back and claimed a three-goal lead before the Cats would eventually grind out a hard fought win.

The Pies were missing inspirational skipper Nick Maxwell and the run-and-carry of defender Ben Johnson, but arguably the most important piece missing from the puzzle was ruckman Darren Jolly.

As mentioned previously, the Pies were smashed in the clearances. This was largely due to the sublime form of Brad Ottens. Ottens worked over Cameron Wood and constantly gave his midfielders first use of the football. Considering Ottens is feeding to quality players such as Joel Selwood, Joel Corey, Steve Johnson and Jimmy Bartel, this is a massive advantage.

Given the presence of Jolly this advantage would not be so distinct if any at all. Jolly is by far a superior ruckman and undoubtedly would have been more competitive than Cameron Wood. Jolly also has the advantage of resting forward, and posing a aerial threat with his height.

Geelong may have beaten the Pies, but they are still inferior against a full-strength Collingwood outfit. However, the premiership race is alive and well. No longer a one horse race, but a two team shoot-out…for now.

Blues Beginning to Blossom

Carlton’s hard fought win over Sydney at the SCG on Friday night announced their graduation from finalists making up the numbers to ‘serious contenders’.

So far this season the Blues have only lost to heavy weights Collingwood, but even that result had positives for Blues’ supporters. Carlton’s 28 point loss to the Pies is the lowest margin Collingwood has won by this season. The Blues can be pleased with their efforts considering the Pies have also defeated top four calibre teams in Essendon and the Bulldogs. No longer do the Blues rely solely on captain Chris Judd; although he is playing brilliantly, the Brownlow medallist now has much needed support from the growth and improvement of Carlton’s many high draft picks.

Judd’s midfield partner in crime Marc Murphy has been one of the improvers. Murphy is currently ranked 4^th in disposals, alongside captain Judd who is 5^th. More impressively is the contested possession count which Judd leads accompanied by Murphy who sits 5^th. Bryce Gibbs and Robert Warnock are others who have significantly lifted their output. Gibbs is ranked 2^nd in the competition for marks whilst Warnock has the 5^th most hitouts in the competition, establishing himself as one of the premier ruckman in the game. On top of their improved midfield output, the Blues have also found several goal kickers who are leading the competition. Jeff Garlett and Andrew Walker sit 4^th and 6^th respectively in the Coleman medal, impressive considering Walker was on the trade table only seven months ago. These two combined with Eddie Betts pose headaches for opposition defences.

Not only have individual players stepped up, but the team has collectively improved across several categories. Statistically they are one of the top teams in the competition. Coach Brett Ratten was renowned for being a physical, tough player. He has clearly instilled his methodology and toughness into the Blues, which has resulted in their incredible tackling improvement. The Blues are ranked 2^nd in the competition for tackles, arguably their most improved aspect. Offensively they are ranked third in average points scored; although offensive has never been a problem for the Blues pre or post Fevola.

Before the Blues can truly challenge the Pies they must improve their defence. Fullback Michael Jamison looms as the pillar which the Blues will build their defence around. Throw in Paul Bower and young Matthew Watson and the Blues have a group capable of holding down defence for the next five years. At present, Bower is injured and Watson is in his first year. If they can get back Bower and get games into Watson this year, a serious assault on Collingwood can be mounted in the seasons to come.

The signs are finally there for the Blues. Years of toiling at the bottom of the ladder may finally be rewarded in the years to come. Although they are not yet at Collingwood’s standard, they are well on their way to being serious contenders over the coming years.