Back to the drawing board for Bombers, Hird

After just four rounds Essendon was touted as a top four team and genuine premiership contender. Revitalized under James Hird, the Bombers were playing terrific, tough football. It seemed Hird had instilled the bravery and toughness he was known for into his players. The Bombers attack on the football was ferocious, their defensive pressure when they did not have it, superb. Captain Jobe Watson had taken his game to another level and the ruck combination of David Hille and Paddy Ryder was causing headaches for opposition coaches. Many were quick to jump on the Bombers bandwagon and labelled them top four material. How quickly the tide can turn.

That was then, this is now. Barely two months later and the Bombers are hanging onto eighth spot by a thread. In recent times the Bombers have been dismal. Over the last five weeks Essendon have recorded just one win, an unconvincing performance over the depleted Brisbane Lions. However, the signs that night were ominous, the Bombers were simply running out of juice. Since then the Bombers have lost four straight against Richmond, Melbourne, Fremantle and North Melbourne. All very winnable games against teams ranked lower than them on the ladder. The key statistical indicators tell a tale of a side running out of legs. In the last five weeks the Bombers average six less tackles per game, 27 less disposals per game, four per cent lower disposal efficiency and five more turnovers a game. Essendon’s decrease in disposals combined with declining disposal efficiency is a recipe for disaster.

The most damning statistical deterioration comes in the form of ‘one percenters’. 1%ers are a key indication of how hard the team works for one another. It consists of acts such as spoils, smothers and shepherds. In the last five weeks the Bombers average 93.40 1%ers per game, ranked 14^th in the league. Similarly, over the first seven rounds Essendon were ranked fifth in the league which indicates the Bombers have lost that desire and desperation they had at the start of the season. It is those extra efforts that can be the difference between winning and losing, and bearing in mind the ladder congestion between positions 7-12 it can ultimately be the difference between playing finals or preparing for the following year. Hird needs to replenish that desire and hunger in order for the Bombers to turnaround their form.

Essendon’s ruthless pre-season was well documented in the media. James Hird worked his Bombers overtime and demanded improvement, rightfully so. Perhaps Hirdy overworked his Bombers, because it appears they have run out of steam. From here they will struggle to make the eight. Poor form accompanied by a brutal fixture suggests Essendon face an uphill challenge if they want to make a September appearance. The Bombers face Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond before travelling to Adelaide to take on the Crows. Waiting for them when they return are the inform Blues and the colossal Collingwood.

In comparison to the Matthew Knights reign just 12 months ago, the James Hird Bombers are only half-a-game superior. It appears Hird’s honeymoon is well and truly over. Not for the first time in his life, he will have to ignite his players and inspire the Bombers.

Beware the Blues

Carlton currently sits third on the ladder behind premiers Collingwood and the undefeated Geelong. Arguably the most improved team in the competition, Carlton have declared themselves a genuine premiership contender. In previous years Carlton merely made up the numbers in the finals, finishing seventh in 2009 and eighth in 2010. On both these occasions the Blues were eliminated immediately by the Lions and Swans. In the offseason earlier this year it was well documented that the Blues had to go deeper into September. It is win a final or bust for Blues’ coach Brett Ratten. Behind an improved work ethic, ferocious tackling and breakout years from the likes of Marc Murphy, Andrew Walker and Michael Jamison, the Blues look set to finally break their finals hoodoo.

For years the Blues have excited their fans with flair and potential, but failed to deliver when it mattered most. Carlton was recognised as an offensive orientated team, they had no problems penetrating the scoreboard. However they struggled at the defensive end of the field, this held them back from being a great team and a premiership contender. This season the Blues have amended the offensive tag they have been labelled. Defensively the Blues are among the best in the league, after eleven rounds they are currently ranked third for points against behind Collingwood and Geelong. The defensive improvement is clearly evident in comparison to last year, when they conceded 1983 points at an average of 90.14 per game, ranked ninth in the competition. This year the Blues are a much improved defensive unit, conceding a mere 808 points after eleven games at an average of 73.45 points per game. An improvement of three goals per match suggests the Blues have finally announced themselves as a premiership threat.

In certain circumstances statistics can be misleading, as British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once said there are “lies, damn lies and statistics.” However the Blues’ opponents have been of the highest quality, including the top three offensive teams in the competition: Collingwood, Geelong and Essendon.

Carlton’s draw ensures they are quite certain to finish in the top four. The Blues only leave Victoria once over the remaining twelve rounds. A top four finish would guarantee the Blues a home final; win, lose or draw week one of the postseason, and thus give them an ideal opportunity to finally break their finals hoodoo.

The favourable draw, accompanied by their healthy list gives Carlton fans reason to be excited. The Blues have arrived in season 2011, and are certainly contenders in what is shaping up as a three horse race.